About the Authors ix
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xiii
1 Introduction 1
2 What Is the Forecasting Workspace Like? 27
3 How Do People Come to Be Forecasters? 49
4 How Do Forecasters Describe How They Reason? 81
5 How Well Do Forecasters (and Forecasts) Perform? 101
6 What Characterizes Expertise? 129
7 How Do Forecasters Get to Be Expert Forecasters? 151
8 What Does Research on Forecaster Knowledge Tell Us? 191
9 What Does Research on Forecaster Perception Tell Us? 211
10 What Does Research on Forecaster Reasoning Tell Us? 243
11 Can a Machine Imitate the Human? 287
12 Can a Machine Replace the Human? 305
13 Forecaster-Computer Interdependence 337
14 Conclusions and Prospects 349
Appendix A: List of Acronyms 361
Appendix B: Extended Narratives of Two Cases of Forecasting Severe Weather 365
Appendix C: Example Synoptic Analyses of GOES Visible Images 389
Appendix D: A Case Study in Human-Machine Interdependence 395
Appendix E: References on Visualization Design and Display Technology 399
References 409
Index 463
